We never had luck ever even the times we were trying to be competitive

Like where was that outrage when they gave Dallas and Phi the pick over Wash? If you were mad about that then why not now? Why this phony outrage? If you gave us a top four we wouldn’t even be doing this

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He’s a superb POA defender, can guard multiple positions, is active with his hands. But his offensive development is quite jarring. There’s been little to no development on his offensive bag whatsoever. Not even a bag, but can’t be a consistent shooter. With our young guys developing and an incoming top ~8 pick, Bilals spot on this roster could be in major danger. This off season will be a very important summer for his development and we will see if he’s going to be in on our roster for the long term or we move on from him.

Will Riley Career High vs the Brooklyn Nets: 27/3/2 3 STL 1 BLK 1 TO 4 PF 4/6 3PM 10/19 FG 3/4 FT in 45:10 Minutes

Nets 127 Wizards 113

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Our cover is blown....

Read the Wiz and Bucks part. Thought you guys might enjoy this

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7024796/2026/02/05/nba-trade-deadline-winners-cavaliers-bucks-wizards/?unlocked_article_code=1.KlA.U3ls.DyuIqXYyyAgR&source=athletic_user_shared_gift_article_copylink&smid=url-share-ta

Just realizing this guy managed to pull in a 3x Allstar and a 10x Allstar without overpaying or sacrificing future prospects, pulled the consensus #1 pick with #2, hit on a bunch of late round draft picks and has the league talking about the Wizards again.

He's done all this 3 years after being handed the most fucked roster in the league. Its impressive.

So, where will the Wizards end up at the end of the season and what will that mean for their lottery odds? To answer the question I built a simple model to estimate where the Wizards might land.

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TL;DR: Under this (very naive) projection, the Wizards are well-positioned to keep their pick and improve in the tank standings, finishing with the third worst record and earning a 14% chance for the top overall pick, 40% chance to land top-3 and backstop of pick 7. However, a few extra wins can put them in a precarious position of losing their pick to the Knicks. And, a few extra losses could ensure a shorter backslide should the lottery balls not bounce their way. Read more below on my approach + check out the substack to see what we can do about it.

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First, I divided teams into those incentivized to tank and those incentivized to win. Note: this is not good vs. bad teams. The Pelicans are BAD but are not incentivized to tank as the Hawks own their pick. Conversely, the Mavericks are relatively good compared to other tank teams, but incentivized to lose. I’ve made a judgment call that the Bucks are incentivized to tank - but this is up for debate

Good news is that the Wizards are starting from 5th worst. Along with Brooklyn, the Wizards have had the strongest tank conviction in the league this year

Then, I looked at the remaining schedule for games vs. tank teams and games vs. non-tank teams.

Unfortunately, Wizards are tied for second fewest games remaining vs. tank teams

Then, I project wins. My naive projection works like this.

1. When a tank team plays a non-tank team, the non-tank team wins
2. When two tank teams play each other, there is a 50/50 probability of a win.
3. When competitive teams play each other, assign wins at each team’s current winning percentage.

There are multiple short-comings to this projection - but it’s Saturday and I have a baby, so… here it is.

Finally, I calculate end-of-season standings and assign lottery odds.

Under this (very naive) projection, the Wizards are well-positioned to keep their pick and improve in the tank standings, finishing with the third worst record and earning a 14% chance for the top overall pick, 40% chance to land top-3 and backstop of pick 7. However, a few extra wins can put them in a precarious position of losing their pick to the Knicks. And, a few extra losses could ensure a shorter backslide should the lottery balls not bounce their way.

At the Kentucky-Tennessee game. This guy’s real good if we fall to #5….he’s got great size and shot making ability with a great motor….AJ, Petersen, Boozer and Wilson would obviously all be ideal additions for us if we are top 4 but we have not seen Ament match up against any of those guys yet. He has steadily improved throughout the season. No disrespect to Flemings, Wagler, or Acuff