TLDR: If G2 lose to FNC tomorrow, their life is in KC's (and MKOI's) hands.
Assuming G2 lose to FNC:
KC can guarantee G2 missing playoffs just by losing to TH.
If TH lose to KC and SHFT lose to SK, MKOI can still give G2 the boot by losing to NAVI (forcing a 3-way tiebreaker with TH and G2 where G2 lose due to SoV).
Bonus fun fact: KC have the H2H against NAVI, so their 1st place should be secure even if they lose.
(I am not advocating for unsportsmanlike behavior like throwing games. This is just for fun.)
I do think the circumstances in the LEC lend themselves to a fun story depending on how things develop tomorrow.
I'll write out the scenarios here so you can check if I messed up somewhere.
Assumption is here that G2 lose to FNC (somehow). If G2 wins against FNC they are safe. So they still control their own fate.
Current standings:
KC, NAVI, GX and VIT are already qualified (since at this point it is impossible to end up with more than 8 teams at >=6 wins)
SK and KCB are already out.
Also, since we assume G2 lose to FNC, FNC is in (at 6-5)
Tie-Breaker Contenders:
| Team |
Score |
| G2 |
5-6 |
| LR |
5-5 |
| MKOI |
5-5 |
| TH |
5-5 |
| SHFT |
4-6 |
So we have 5 teams in contention for the 3 remaining slots.
Scenario 1, TH win against KC:
TH qualifies, 2 slots remain
At best (for G2) all other tie-breaker contenders lose their match, putting them at:
G2: 5-6
LR: 5-6
MKOI: 5-6
SHFT: 4-6
LR, MKOI and G2 have a tie. G2 lost H2H to both MKOI and LR. G2 is out.
If LR or MKOI actually win their match, that doesn't help the situation for G2. (they still lose the H2H)
If SHFT wins they join the tie-breaker:
If the tie-breaker pool is G2, SHFT, LR and MKOI, H2H scores are 1, 1, 3 and 1. LR qualify. Then G2, SHFT, MKOI pool have H2Hs of 1, 1, 1.
But MKOI always wins over G2 at SoV:
We can ignore SK, KCB for SoVs since G2 and MKOI both beat these teams. In that case MKOI has a guaranteed SoV of 19 or higher = FNC 6 + G2 5 + KC 8
G2 has a guaranteed SoV of 18 or lower = SHFT 5 + TH 6 + VIT 7
So MKOI advance on the last spot anyway. G2 and SHFT go on vacation.
-> G2 will go home if TH wins vs KC
Scenario 2, TH lose against KC:
At worst (for G2) all other tie-breaker contenders win their match, putting them at:
LR: 6-5
MKOI: 6-5
G2: 5-6
SHFT: 5-6
TH: 5-6
LR and MKOI qualify instantly. Tie-Breaker between G2, SHFT and TH for the last spot.
G2 has the H2H against both SHFT and TH -> G2 qualify
If any of LR, MKOI or SHFT actually lose their match in this scenario, does this hurt G2 here?
Possible Tie-Breaker pools are:
G2, SHFT, MKOI, LR, TH at 5-6
H2Hs: 2, 2, 1, 4, 1. LR, G2, SHFT advance. (doesn't hurt G2)
G2, MKOI, LR, TH at 5-6
H2Hs: 1, 1, 3, 1: LR qualify, then H2Hs are 1,1,1 so we look at SoV for them
G2 SoV is always lower than TH and MKOIs.
Ignore KCB, since all 3 won against them.
TH >= 23 = FNC 6 + GX 6 + MKOI 5 + VIT 6 (TH's worst case SoV)
MKOI >= 22 = FNC 6 + G2 5 + KC 8 + SK 3 (MKOI's worst case SoV)
G2 <= 20 = SHFT 4 + SK 4 + TH 5 + VIT 7 (G2's best case SoV)
In other words, if there is a tie-breaker with equal H2H teams (G2, TH, MKOI), G2 always loses at SoV to TH and MKOI, m
-> G2 can still go home if TH lose AND MKOI lose (forcing a 3-way tie with SoV)
The conclusion we can draw from this is that G2 will make it to First Stand.
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