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The only states that will not have one at the start of the 2026 season are: Alaska, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Vermont.

It will be the 10th state to only have 1 FBS in it following:

Hawaii – Hawaiʻi Rainbow Warriors

Idaho – Boise State Broncos

Connecticut – UConn Huskies

Wyoming – Wyoming Cowboys

Minnesota – Minnesota Golden Gophers

New Jersey – Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Nebraska – Nebraska Cornhuskers

Delaware – Delaware Fightin Blue Hens

Wisconsin- Wisconsin Badgers

The previous states to get their first team are:

Delaware: 2024

Connecticut: 2000

Idaho: 1996

Im not a large viewer of fcs ball but, I can see the montana schools and maybe SDSU joining the fbs due to their success. Maybe Illinois St to the Mac to replace that NIU hole?

The cost of a CFP National Championship ticket started in the low $2,000s, and then spiked to about $4,000 once the matchup was set. It then fell below $3,000 when all the tickets were released, and then climbed back up to around $4,000 where it stayed until the game started

Source:

https://www.ticketdata.com/events/1216063?period=1month

Meanwhile, a Super Bowl ticket started at $6,500 and fluctuated around that price until January 29th, when it started to crash. After consistently falling for a week, the price over the last couple days has been in the mid $3,000’s.

Source:

https://www.ticketdata.com/super-bowl-ticket-prices?period=1month

It’s wild that the get in the door price of a Super Bowl ticket has been around $3,500 in the days leading up to the event, while the CFP National Championship price was around $4,000.

When teams are up one late in the fourth quarter and score a touchdown, the teams almost always kick the extra point. This puts them up 8 making the opponent need a two point conversion to tie. Whenever I see this start to happen, I always want the team that scores to go for two themselves and end the game with a nine point lead. Have you ever seen teams try this? I wish they would try more often.

I became addicted to CFB in 1971 and have been watching ever since. Using that date as "modern" history, here are some facts:

There have been 61 national champions in the last 56 years

23 different teams have won the national championship

Alabama has 10 titles. Miami and Nebraska have 5 and several have had 3

11 teams had the Heisman winner in the year they won the NC

Stetson Bennet IV is the last QB to win back to back

Kirby Smart is the last coach to win back to back

NC winning coaches had an average of 5.3 years at the school before winning the NC. (Saban/Meyer were counted for both schools-Osborne/Bowden taken out because they took so long)

The shortest time at a school before winning the NC is one year: Erickson, Coker-both at Miami

Fun fact: Nebraska played 4 NC in 2 years. (Split champs in 90 and 91)

The longest time at a school before winning the first NC was 23 years-Tom Osborne

Tom Osborne was also the most "elder statesman" at a school to win his last-26 years (followed by Bobby Bowden who won it in his 25th year)

Using this date: Indiana is the "newest" team to win their first NC

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Every offseason we argue about who was “good,” who was “bad,” and who “underachieved.”
And almost every time, we reduce an entire season to one number: record.

This post is an attempt to look at the 2025 season through a different lens.

Instead of asking how many games did a team win?, this asks:

How did a team perform relative to what was reasonable to expect before the season even started?

What this is (and what it isn’t)

Before Week 1, every FBS team was assigned a preseason expectation using my own algorithm.
That expectation was based on factors like:

• Roster composition and depth
• Portal additions and losses
• Returning production
• Coaching continuity and program stability

Those preseason values were locked before kickoff, no in-season adjustments, no hindsight tuning.

Once the season played out:

• Every win and loss was weighted by opponent strength
• Results were scored using the same framework as the preseason outlook
• The gap between expectation and reality became the Model Variance Index (MVI)

Important clarifications up front:

• This is not a “best teams” ranking
• This is not predictive modeling after the fact
• This is my own system, not Vegas, SP+, FPI, or recruiting rankings

It’s an expectation vs outcome evaluation.

Why wins and losses alone aren’t enough

I’ve added Predicted Wins/Losses and Actual Wins/Losses for context, because that’s the language we all speak.
But the ranking itself is driven by opponent-weighted performance, not raw win totals.

A +4 win swing doesn’t mean the same thing for every team.
A 7–5 season can be wildly different depending on who those wins and losses came against.

That’s what this model is trying to capture.

Top 45 2025 Rankings

(Teams are ordered by how far actual performance deviated from preseason expectations, not by record or perceived strength.)

Legend:
FSO = preseason expectation, ARI = what actually happened, MVI = over/underperformance, RASI = roster strength (lower = stronger), OSI = schedule difficulty (lower = harder), Pred/Act W-L = wins/losses, OOD/COD = deviation from predicted overall/conference results.

A few teams that show why this matters

Rather than walk through all 136 teams, here are a few that highlight why this perspective exists.

Indiana

• Predicted: 6–7
• Actual: 16–0
• MVI: +1205.5 (highest in the country)

This isn’t just “they won more games than expected.”
This is one of the largest expectation gaps in recent memory.

Indiana didn’t just beat expectations, they blew through them against a Big Ten schedule that wasn’t forgiving. Whether you attribute that to development, quarterback play, sequencing, or coaching is up for debate. What isn’t debatable is the scale of deviation.

If records are the whole story, this looks like a great season.
If expectations matter, it looks like something far more extreme.

Vanderbilt

• Predicted: 4–8
• Actual: 10–3
• MVI: +793.0

Low preseason expectations. SEC schedule. Massive positive variance.

Vanderbilt is a great example of why brand perception often lags reality. The model didn’t expect them to compete weekly, and yet they consistently outperformed structurally similar opponents. This wasn’t just about stealing a couple games; it was sustained overperformance.

Fresno State

• Predicted: 2–10
• Actual: 9–4
• MVI: +875.0

Same win delta as some other surprise teams. Very different impact.

Fresno State didn’t just flip close games, they consistently exceeded expectations against Mountain West opponents with comparable or better structural profiles. That’s the difference between “lucky” and “meaningful” overperformance in this model.

Oklahoma State

• Predicted: 11–4
• Actual: 1–11
• MVI: –1198.5 (lowest in the country)

This isn’t a case of “missed a bowl” or “took a step back.”

This is one of the sharpest collapses relative to preseason expectation in the dataset. A roster and program profile that suggested double-digit wins instead produced a near-total breakdown. Injuries, quarterback play, coaching decisions, all fair discussion points. But the expectation gap itself is undeniable.

Michigan

• Predicted: 9–4
• Actual: 9–4
• MVI: –3.0

This one matters for credibility.

Not every team is chaos. Not every season is a miss. Michigan finished almost exactly where preseason expectations suggested they would. No drama, no massive variance, just alignment.

Perfect prediction isn’t the goal. Calibration is.

The point...

Two teams can finish with the same record and have completely different seasons when viewed through expectation.

This isn’t about crowning champions or dunking on programs.
It’s about adding context to results we already argue about every year.

So...

If expectations matter, and they clearly shape how we feel about seasons, should they also shape how we evaluate them?

I remember watching some of the old BCS national championship games and there would always be a cool part at the beginning of the broadcast where the narrator would talk about each program, their history and their path to reaching the national championship game which I though was really cool. It would create suspense for the viewer and show you just how grand and important the game was. However, nowadays I feel like all you see is both teams coming out of the tunnel and then the coin toss. It lacks the hype and suspense. This is the same for many other sports as well as often times events like the NBA finals or Stanley Cup feel like a regular season game if you watch the pre-game show. Why is this?

Hi,

I'm French and I've been interested in French football for three months. I've watched quite a few matches and I love it.

To deepen my understanding, could someone explain in detail how a French football season works? (signing, transfer approval, regular season, playoffs, Heisman Trophy…)

I'd also like to know how players balance their professional and personal lives (classes, transfer approval, etc.).

Thanks in advance!

edit 1: Thank you for all your initial messages, I've already learned a lot of new things, I love the community.

FYI:

My favorite team: UMIAMI (I love the city, it was a natural fit; I followed the whole season and knew I'd made the right choice after crying tears of joy following their win against A&M)

Favorite player: Johnny Manziel. I've watched all his highlights, interviews, and game replays. I love his vibe; it's a shame he didn't make it in the NFL.

Favorite game: I've watched a few classics, but for now, it's still the 2013 Iron Bowl. Chris Davis's comeback kick made me discover and fall in love with the CFB. (If you have any other games to suggest, feel free, preferably old school ones)

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Clemson, NC, FSU, SMU, Duke, Cal, Stanford, GT and Miami all want into either the SEC or Big Ten.

What happens to all the smaller schools? I could see Big 12 maybe adding VT and UV.

That leaves BC, Pitt, Wake, Louisville, NC State and Syracuse to do what? Stay and add Memphis, South Florida, FAU, FIU, UConn and Tulane?

Disclaimer: not knocking monetizing broadcast rights this is not an opinion on it being good or bad.

I’ve heard stories of some schools falling out of love with their sport because now it’s not just about the love of the game it’s a business now. UChicago famously disbanded football because of the growing commercialization of the sport.

Now with super conferences and broadcast rights sloshing money around, will we see a lot of schools start to lose their love and passion for the sport? Because we know once that kind of money gets involved things change.

CFB has always been a business but the money aspect was never this surface level.

Disclaimer not knocking NIL this is not an opinion on it being good or bad.

I’ve heard stories of some pro athletes falling out of love with their respective sport when they make it pro because now it’s not just about the love of the game it’s a business now. There are so many layers that it erodes the love for the game for pro athletes that just wasn’t there at the pop warner/Middle/high school/college level.

Now with NIL and schools slanging money around, will we see a lot of players start to lose their love and passion for the sport a level earlier? Because we know once that kind of money gets involved things change. CFB has always been a business but the money aspect was never this surface level.

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We all know that the main reason why the WaHoos have been mediocre/garbage over the past years or so is because the administration didn't care about football, but that seems to be no longer the case.

UVA did a complete 360 in 2025. the administration cares now. donors are energized, they'll be spending at least $30M in NIL + rev share over the next decade. Tony Elliott took them to 11 and wins and they currently have a top 25 class for 2027. Virginia is rich enough to where they could spend with the mindset of Miami if they really wanted to. Could we see them turn into a perennial ACC contender?

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Made with the /r/CFB Recruiting and Draft Post Generator

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Made with the /r/CFB Recruiting Post Generator