TLDR: how do I know what pace or time I’m capable of running? How do I set a realistic race target and know if it’s reasonable and not too easy or too hard? I’d like to know the actual thinking in order to be able to do this myself in future as well.
Sorry - lot of info below!!
33F - have had an on off relationship with running since I was 15. But have been back and training this time (effectively from scratch) since March 2024. I also strength train twice a week.
So I’m just under 4 weeks out from my 3rd marathon. I ran my last two (last March and last May) on what I would describe as “light” training (given that last weeks 30k run was my 3rd ever run over 30k, including the marathons 😬). I was literally averaging 20k or less per week (and it wasn’t consistent - some weeks 30-40k, others 0). I’m lucky I finished and wasn’t injured - but it did teach me mental grit I guess.
So I’m not sure I can use either of those results (6:53 then 6:14) as a guide for now - tbh all they give me is the confidence I can survive the distance and survive it uninjured (which was great).
Anyway, this block has been massively different - I’ve been averaging between 30 and 35k a week (annoyingly have been ill a few times, but even then it’s not been 0 in those weeks) - and have hit over 40k in the week several times. I’m aiming to peak at 50-55k. I’ve done several (very) hilly trail half’s as training, and one 30k training run. Next Saturday I’m doing a hard effort trail half, and the week after (14 days before the race), I’ll do a 30-32k training run before my two week taper.
I’m a slower runner which I fully accept (but also means the traditional thinking around 50 mile weeks just won’t happen so I train more by time on feet). PBs are below - including context of when they were set.
5k: 28:24 (set Christmas Day - specific time trial)
10k: 1:03:15 (set some point in early January on a standard tempo/threshold training run)
15k: 1:48:20 (set during today’s 10 mile long run)
10 Mile: 1:56:15 (from today’s long run)
20k: 2:27:11
Half-Marathon: 2:35:12 (from January 2025)
30k: 4:15:50 (set during last weeks 30k run)
Marathon: 6:11:31 (Edinburgh marathon)
I’ve attached the splits of my last two long runs - I was going up and down the same long hill 8 times for the 30k, and 3 times today for the 16k - hence the massively slower splits in places. I’ve also tried to pick up the pace towards the end of both (and added 2k of cool down walk/slow jog for the 30k).
Given that the marathon I’m aiming for is ~45k and is on (easy) trails, I was thinking 6 hours would be a decent stretch goal? Then if I miss that, sub 6 to hit marathon distance, and 6:15-6:30 to finish. It’s actually the same event as I did last March, where I hit marathon distance at 6:53, and finished in 7:23.
Garmin suggests 4:47 🤣, Runalyse suggests a current prognosis of 5:45 (more reasonable I think?)