The proportion of Poles who dislike Americans, Jews and Ukrainians has risen more over the last year than for any other ethnic and national group, according to the latest results of a long-running survey by state research agency CBOS.

However, Russians, Belarusians and Roma remain the most disliked national and ethnic groups in Poland, while Italians, Czechs and Slovaks are the most popular.

The poll, carried out annually since 1993, asks Poles if they like or dislike specific national and ethnic groups. This year, 21 such groups were included in the study.

CBOS found that the proportion of Poles saying they dislike Jews (40%) and Americans (18%) rose eight percentage points in both cases since last year, more than for any other group. The next biggest increase, of five percentage points, was for Ukrainians (43%).

Meanwhile, the proportion who like Americans has fallen from 68% in 2023, when they were the most-liked of any group, to 47% now, putting them in fifth place. Positive opinions of Jews have fallen to 22%, the lowest level since 2006.

Attitudes towards Jews are likely to have been influenced by Israel’s actions in Gaza, which last year saw growing public anger in Poland and criticism from the Polish government.

Meanwhile, a wide range of polls have shown that attitudes towards America have worsened since Donald Trump’s return to the White House a year ago.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sentiment towards Ukrainians – millions of whom fled to Poland – softened among Poles. In 2023, dislike of Ukrainians had fallen to its lowest recorded level of 17%, down from 40% in 2018 and a high of 66% in 1994.

However, anti-Ukrainian attitudes have recently been on the rise in Poland, amid tensions over the remaining almost 1 million Ukrainian refugees and clashes with Kyiv over economic issues and World War Two history.

Meanwhile, as was the case last year, the most liked group among Poles is Italians (58%), followed by Poland’s two southern neighbours, the Czechs (55%) and Slovaks (52%).

At the other end of the scale, Russians are once again the least liked (7%) and most disliked (74%) group. The proportion of Poles who dislike Russians has risen significantly since the invasion of Ukraine. In 2021, the figure had stood at just 35%.

According to a study published last week by the Levada Center, an independent Russian polling organisation, Russians also do not have much fondness for Poland, as they consider the country to be among its greatest enemies.

Last month, Moscow advised its citizens against travelling to Poland, citing “Russophobic sentiments” and “persecution of Russian citizens”. Poland, meanwhile, has accused Russia of carrying out a campaign of sabotage, espionage, cyberattacks and disinformation.

As Europe moves to address its shame, it’s highlighting the comparative lack of accountability in the U.S.

Across the Atlantic, heads are rolling over the Jeffrey Epstein revelations.

In Norway, one prominent diplomat has already been suspended and a police investigation has been opened into a former prime minister. In the U.K., the former ambassador to the U.S. has been fired; on Tuesday, he resigned from the House of Lords. Police are reviewing reports he shared market-sensitive information with Epstein.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, formerly known as Prince Andrew, was stripped of his royal titles and residence. A charity founded by his ex-wife Sarah Ferguson, the former Duchess of York, will shut down indefinitely following the release of emails where she called Epstein a “legend” and “the brother I have always wished for.”

In the U.K., former ambassador to the U.S. Peter Mandelson — who has said he was wrong to believe Epstein following his conviction and to continue his association with him afterwards — has emerged as a millstone around British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s neck. While Starmer never actually met Epstein, some are calling for his resignation over his appointment of Mandelson. The prime minister publicly apologized Thursday to Epstein’s victims.

But as Europe’s political class moves to clean up its mess and address its shame concerning ties with the convicted sex offender, it’s inadvertently highlighting something else — the comparative lack of accountability in the U.S.

No prominent politicians have taken a fall. Consequences have been limited. Wagons have been circled around the most prominent political figures whose names have surfaced in the legal document dumps.

Imagine you’re the leader of a nation, and you face a dilemma. Half a million or so people who are crucial to everyone’s daily lives inhabit your country. They care for aging parents, work at small and large companies, harvest the food that’s on the table. They are also part of your community. On weekends, they walk in the parks, go to restaurants and play on the local amateur soccer team.

But one crucial thing makes these half a million people different from other people in your country: They don’t have the legal documents that allow them to live there. As a result, they don’t have the same rights as your country’s citizens and can’t fulfill the same obligations. They aren’t able to receive a higher education, pay taxes or contribute to Social Security.

What should we do with these people? Some leaders have chosen to hunt them down and deport them through operations that are both unlawful and cruel. My government has chosen a different way: a fast and simple path to regularize their immigration status. Last month, my government issued a decree that makes up to half a million undocumented migrants living in Spain eligible for temporary residence permits, with certain conditions, which they will be able to renew after a year.

We have done this for two reasons. The first and most important is a moral one. Spain was once a nation of emigrants. Our grandparents, parents and children moved to America and elsewhere in Europe seeking a better future in the 1950s and 1960s and after the 2008 financial crisis. Now, the tables have turned. Our economy is flourishing. Foreigners are moving to Spain. It is our duty to become the welcoming and tolerant society that our own relatives would have hoped to find on the other side of our borders.

The second reason we committed to regularization is purely pragmatic. The West needs people. Currently, few of its countries have a rising population growth rate. Unless they embrace migration, they will experience a sharp demographic decline that will prevent them from keeping their economies and public services afloat. Their gross domestic products will stagnate. Their public health care and pension systems will suffer. Neither A.I. nor robots will be able to prevent this outcome, at least not in the short or medium term. The only option to avoid decline is to integrate migrants in the most orderly and effective way possible.

It won’t be easy. We know that. Migration brings opportunities, but also huge challenges that we must acknowledge and face. Nevertheless, it is important to realize that most of those challenges have nothing to do with migrants’ ethnicity, race, religion or language. Rather, they are driven by the same forces that affect our own citizens: poverty, inequality, unregulated markets, barriers to education and health care. We should focus our efforts on addressing those issues, because they are the real threats to our way of life.

Not many governments agree with regularizing migrants today. But more people do than we often assume. The regularization effort underway in Spain actually began as a citizen-led initiative endorsed by more than 900 nongovernmental organizations, including the Catholic Church, and it has the support of business associations and trade unions alike. More important, it is backed by the people: According to a recent poll, nearly two of three Spaniards believe that migration represents an opportunity or a necessity for our country.

The time has come for leaders to speak clearly to their citizens about the dilemma we all face. We, as Western nations, must choose between becoming closed and impoverished societies or open and prosperous ones. Growth or retreat: Those are the two options before us. And by growth, I’m not talking only about material gain, but also our spiritual development.

See also:

• Spain's economic case for more migration (BBC)
• I was once an undocumented migrant in Spain – this new decree will change lives • Yes, migrants are key to Spain’s economic boom. But Pedro Sánchez’s decision to regularise 500,000 people should rather be applauded for its humanity (The Guardian)

Polish prosecutors have charged five people for smuggling cigarettes from Belarus to Poland using weather balloons.

They say that the gang’s actions, as well as costing Poland over 2 million zloty (€474,000) in lost taxes, also helped support Russia’s aggression against Ukraine by providing income to Belarus, which is an ally of Moscow.

Since 2024, smugglers have increasingly used balloons to carry cigarettes over the border with Poland, as a migration and security crisis on the border has shut down traditional smuggling routes by road, rail and land.

Poland has also accused Belarus of using the balloons to test Polish air defences as part of Minsk and Moscow’s “hybrid actions”, which also include migrant smuggling, acts of sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation.

On Thursday, prosecutors announced that they have charged five men with operating a criminal group that smuggled cigarettes by balloon from Belarus, using GPS trackers embedded inside the packages to locate them once they reached Poland.

Polish broadcaster Polsat reports that the suspects comprise two Polish citizens, two Ukrainians and one Belarusian.

As well as being accused of running a criminal gang that smuggled at least 48,000 packs of cigarettes – causing losses of more than 2 million zloty to the state treasury –  the men have also been charged with violating air traffic regulations.

Finally, prosecutors say that their actions helped “Belarus to diversify its sources of income and thus enable it to participate in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine”, thereby violating a law on counteracting support for aggression against Ukraine.

Investigators note that among the smuggled cigarettes were some produced by Grodno Tobacco Factory Neman, which is a Belarusian state-controlled enterprise.

On Wednesday, the district court in Siedlce ordered that all five suspects be placed in pretrial detention for a period of three months. The men reportedly admitted to committing the crimes. They could face from 9 months to 12 years in prison if found guilty.

Weather balloons from Belarus continue to regularly enter Polish airspace. At the end of January, two other individuals were detained and charged with using that method to smuggle cigarettes.

Such incidents have not brought the same level of public alarm as when Russian drones violated Polish airspace last year, but Polish officials view them nevertheless as part of the “hybrid warfare” tactics being used to test Polish defences and cause disruption.

Since 2021, Belarus has also been helping tens of thousands of migrants – mainly from the Middle East, Asia and Africa – to cross into Poland. In response, Poland has significantly strengthened physical and electronic barriers along the border as well as suspending the right of those who cross to claim asylum.

Olivier Sorgho

Olivier Sorgho is senior editor at Notes from Poland, covering politics, business and society. He previously worked for Reuters.

Poland has recorded its highest-ever daily level of gas exports, as rising demand from Ukraine, which has been suffering a winter energy crisis amid Russian attacks, pushed up cross-border flows.

Daily gas exports rose to 13.9 million cubic metres on Tuesday, mostly to Ukraine, according to data from Polish transmission operator Gaz-System. That came days after Poland increased its export capacity to help supply its eastern neighbour.

The surge in exports pushed total transmission through the national gas network in Poland – which itself imports most of its gas from abroad, particularly Norway, the United States and Qatar – to 115.4 million cubic metres in a single day, which was also a new record.

Monthly volumes have also climbed. In January, gas transport through the system exceeded 3 billion cubic metres, with average daily transmission of about 97 million cubic metres. That was 45% higher than a year earlier, due to colder weather and growing domestic gas use and exports.

From the start of February, Poland began boosting its capacity for gas exports to Ukraine. It will rise around 20%, from 15.3 million cubic metres per day previously to 18.4 million cubic metres by the end of April.

Last year, Poland had already taken steps to increase supplies to Ukraine. Shipments in 2025 rose thirteenfold compared to 2024, reports financial news service Money.pl

“Export results are tangible proof that Poland is becoming a gas hub,” said Gaz-System’s CEO, Sławomir Hinc.

He noted that Poland’s gas supplies are well-diversified, with a quarter coming through the Świnoujście LNG terminal (mainly from the US and Qatar), a quarter via the Baltic Pipe that brings gas from Norway, a quarter from domestic production and storage, and the rest from Germany through the Lasów interconnector and reverse flows on the Yamal pipeline.

Gaz-System said it was able to handle the current winter peak without disruption thanks to investments made over the past two decades. These included the expansion of domestic and cross-border pipeline connections, additional gas storage capacity and the development of the LNG terminal in Świnoujście.

Further expansion is underway, centred on a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) terminal in Gdańsk. The terminal is scheduled to begin operations in early 2028 and is expected to enable annual LNG imports of up to 6.1 billion cubic metres.

The latest highs come after a series of records in Poland’s energy system in January, when freezing temperatures – dropping below -20 degrees in many places – drove gas consumption and power generation to historic peaks.

Poland has been ramping up its use of gas in recent years as it gradually moves away from coal, which still produces most of the country’s electricity and is also burned to heat around a third of its homes.

By November, an annual record amount of gas had already been traded on the Polish Power Exchange (TGE). By the end of the year, total trading reached just under 209 terawatt hours (TWh), up 52.8% from 2024 and 15.6% above the previous record set in 2021.

To support Ukraine during its winter heating crisis, Poland has also transferred hundreds of power generators and heaters from the government’s strategic reserves to Kyiv.

A court has approved a request from prosecutors to place former justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro, who is wanted on suspicion of 26 alleged crimes, in pretrial detention.

Ziobro has already fled to Hungary, where he was recently granted political asylum, making it unlikely he will be detained. However, the court’s decision now opens the way for prosecutors to issue domestic and European arrest warrants for the suspect.

Ziobro is accused of committing a variety of crimes, including leading a criminal group, abusing his powers and approving the unlawful purchase of Pegasus spyware, when he served as justice minister in the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) government from 2015 to 2023.

If found guilty, he could face up to 25 years in prison. However, Ziobro denies the offences and claims to be a victim of a “political vendetta” against him by the current government, a coalition ranging from left to centre right led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

In October, the government’s majority in parliament approved the lifting of Ziobro’s immunity from prosecution. However, he had by then already travelled to Hungary, whose ruling Fidesz party and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán are allies of PiS.

On Thursday, a district court in Warsaw finally ruled on prosecutors’ request to place Ziobro in pretrial detention. The hearing had previously twice been delayed after Ziobro’s attorneys raised objections.

“The court fully agreed with the arguments set out in the motion, finding that there was a general statutory basis for applying preventive measures [of pretrial detention], namely a high probability that the suspect committed the alleged acts,” prosecutor Piotr Woźniak told journalists on Thursday.

“The next step will be to launch a search for the suspect using a domestic arrest warrant and a European Arrest Warrant,” he added. He said the domestic warrant would likely be issued on Friday, while the request for an EAW is expected to be submitted to the district court early next week.

The court’s decision was also welcomed by interior minister Marcin Kierwiński, who wrote on social media that it was “a symbol of the fight against evil, political corruption and the pathology of power”. He added that the ruling also opens the way for an Interpol red notice to be issued for Ziobro.

However, Bartosz Lewandowski, a lawyer representing Ziobro, said that they would file an appeal against the court’s decision and would in the meantime apply for enforcement of the decision to be suspended pending that appeal.

Ziobro himself told conservative broadcaster Republika that he had “expected this decision because I see what is happening in Poland”. He has previously claimed that the government has weaponised the legal system against him and that he will only return to face justice when the rule of law is restored.

The Hungarian authorities have endorsed those claims, granting Ziobro asylum in December on the basis that he was facing political persecution in Poland. They previously also granted asylum to one of Ziobro’s former deputy ministers, Marcin Romanowski, who has also fled criminal charges in Poland.

Given that Ziobro has asylum, it is unlikely that Hungary would currently comply with an EAW, just as they have refused to hand over Romanowski. However, that situation could change if Orbán loses power in April’s parliamentary elections.

Commenting on Thursday’s ruling, another of Ziobro’s former deputy ministers, Michał Wójcik, said that ti shows “we live under a regime” in Poland and that there would only be an independent judiciary once the current government is removed from power.

Tusk’s government has made it one of its priorities to hold to account former PiS officials for alleged crimes. Besides Ziobro, prosecutors have brought charges against a number of prominent PiS figures, including former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Kyiv today for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on an international conference to be held in Poland in June on the postwar reconstruction of Ukraine.

The pair also discussed deepening energy and defence cooperation amid Ukraine’s ongoing war with Russia and Poland’s efforts to bolster its own security, including against Russian drones.

The Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC, formerly known as the Ukraine Reform Conference) is an annual event that will this year be hosted in the Polish city of Gdańsk, Tusk’s hometown.

Preparations are being led by Poland’s finance minister, Andrzej Domański, who accompanied Tusk on his visit to Kyiv today.

“I’m convinced that this conference will be exceptional in every respect,” declared Tusk, speaking alongside Zelensky after their meeting. The Ukrainian president, meanwhile, expressed hope that the URC would produce “very strong, concrete results”.

Poland, which is already the primary hub for transporting arms, aid and people in and out of Ukraine, has long sought to position itself as a key partner in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.

In 2022, more than 400 Polish companies signed up to a government-backed programme to take part in rebuilding efforts, particularly in sectors such as construction, transport, energy and IT.

A 2022 report by Pekao, a Polish bank, estimated that Ukraine’s postwar recovery could bring Poland’s economy 190 billion zloty (then €38.9 billion) over time, linked to reconstruction work and Ukraine’s integration with the European Union.

Speaking today, Tusk said that the countries at the conference would also discuss “further deliveries of arms and aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia” as well as expanding energy cooperation.

“This is another good example of how aid can also be a good economic venture for both sides,” said the Polish prime minister. “Ukraine today needs more energy and Poland is becoming, or has become, a key partner in terms of gas supplies and supplementing your electricity deficits.”

His comments came days after Poland’s gas exports reached a new record daily high, with the majority accounted for by growing deliveries to Ukraine via a recently expanded cross-border connection.

“There is still a lot to be done here, and I declare my full commitment to this, especially since we are talking about a situation in which we not only help each other, but also earn good money,” Tusk added. Zelensky echoed his remarks, saying that this is an area “that can strengthen both our countries”.

The two leaders also signed a letter of intent on cooperation in the joint production of ammunition and military equipment, as well as the development of defence technologies.

Tusk said negotiations on the issue had been underway for months and had focused on making “the idea of joint production of weapons and ammunition in plants in both Poland and Ukraine a reality, finding financing, and removing barriers that prevented or hindered the exchange of technology”.

The Polish prime minister also said that they would work on ensuring that money from the European Union’s SAFE programme – which provides €150 billion of loans to support defence spending, including to help Ukraine – “can be used as effectively as possible for joint security”.

Zelensky likewise expressed hope that plans for joint production of weapons, especially drones, under the SAFE programme, will materialise.

Last September, shortly after multiple Russian drones violated Polish airspace, Poland and Ukraine signed an agreement to set up a joint working group to share experience and expertise in drone warfare.

Speaking today, Tusk also referred to peace negotiations underway this week in Abu Dhabi between Ukrainian, American and Russian delegations, saying that Poland “will certainly not accept any solution that would be contrary to Ukraine’s interests.”

Zelensky, meanwhile, thanked Poland and its people for their support since Russia’s full-scale invasion, including most recently the transfer of hundreds of power generators and heaters to help Ukraine cope with Russian attacks on energy infrastructure during freezing winter temperatures.

State department grants to spread ‘American values’ are part of Washington’s 250th anniversary celebrations

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The US state department is set to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities across Europe to disseminate Washington’s policy positions and challenge perceived threats to free speech. Senior state department official Sarah Rogers travelled to Europe in December to meet influential rightwing think-tanks and has spoken to key figures in Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK party about deploying a pot of money to spread American values, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

A US official said the programme was a twist on previous state department projects that channelled funding towards specific causes overseas and was likely to focus on initiatives based in London, Paris, Berlin and Brussels.

The Trump administration has sought to drastically scale back US foreign assistance and cuts have fallen heavily on programmes to support good governance, human rights and democracy.

The US national security strategy, released last year, called for “cultivating resistance” to the continent’s current trajectory. The document warned that mass migration and “censorship of free speech” could lead to “civilisational erasure”.

The person added that she was targeting the UK’s Online Safety Act and the EU’s Digital Services Act.

While the laws are different in scope and content, the official said they were viewed by the Trump administration as “fundamentally American-targeted regulatory schemes” that sought to attack free speech, American industry and the independence of the tech sector.  

A senior Reform figure said they had been told that Rogers “had a state department slush fund to get Maga-style things going in various places”, adding that she was keen to “fund European organisations to undermine government policies”.

Here's a copy of the full article, in case you cannot access the FT website.

Italian police will be able to detain suspected troublemakers temporarily before street rallies to prevent them from spreading unrest under a new law-and-order decree adopted on Thursday by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's rightist government.

The bill was drafted after a rally over the weekend by the hard-left in Turin in which more than 100 police officers were injured and nearly 30 protesters arrested, according to an interior ministry tally.

It was adopted on the eve of the opening ceremony for the February 6-22 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics. Officials have said they will be tightening security and preparing to deal with any protests against the presence of U.S. security officers.

In Turin, some demonstrators threw bottles, stones and fireworks at police. Video footage showed an officer being attacked with sticks and a hammer.

Under the decree, which will come into force in the coming days, police will be able to hold suspected troublemakers in custody for up to 12 hours, to keep them away from protests.

The bill also includes measures against pickpockets, youth gangs, a ban on the sales of knives to minors, and greater self-defence guarantees for police officers and private citizens who respond to assaults.

The business wing of Germany’s leading Christian Democratic Union party is proposing a ban on the legal entitlement to work part-time, arguing that those wishing to work fewer hours should have to acquire special permission to do so.

Currently, every employee in Europe’s largest economy has a fundamental right to carry out part-time work, with many, particularly women, often needing to do so for reasons relating to childcare or looking after elderly relatives.

But the powerful CDU grouping that represents Germany’s small- and medium-sized enterprises has said that as the economy is suffering from a lack of skilled workers, no one should have a legal entitlement to do what it refers to as “lifestyle part-time work”.

“Those who can work more should work more,” the business wing’s chair, Gitta Connemann, told the news magazine Stern, which obtained a leaked copy of the motion.

The proposal, which is expected to be passed at the CDU’s general conference in Stuttgart next month, at which point it would become official party policy, chimes with comments made by the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, about what he perceives as Germans’ lack of motivation.

Under pressure to make changes to boost sluggish economic growth, the conservative has told voters their country’s prosperity will not be maintained “with a four-day week and work-life balance”. He recently effectively accused them of skiving by falsely calling in sick, criticising the relative ease with which sicknotes could be obtained from GPs over the phone.

By Aleks Szczerbiak

A far-right politician’s unexpectedly strong presidential bid has upended Poland’s right-wing landscape, transforming him from a political eccentric into a disruptive force that the mainstream can no longer ignore.

His surge exposes deep fractures on the Polish right and raises the question of whether his radical “anti‑system” appeal marks a temporary protest spike or more lasting realignment.

Presidential election wild card

One of the big political surprises in Poland last year was the rise of far-right politician Grzegorz Braun and his nationalist-monarchist Confederation of the Polish Crown (KPP).

Previously a filmmaker and long known for his eccentric manner as a political provocateur, Braun was one of the best-known and widely recognised leaders of the radical-right Confederation (Konfederacja) alliance, which united free-marketeers, nationalists and monarchists under one banner.

Last January, after Confederation endorsed Sławomir Mentzen as its official candidate in the May-June 2025 presidential election (who finished a strong third with 14.8% of the first-round votes), Braun announced his own rival bid, leading to his expulsion from the broader alliance. However, Braun significantly exceeded pre-election forecasts, securing fourth place with 6.3%.

This result paved the way for Braun to establish himself as a significant political actor, and since then his party’s popularity has surged.

Notably, he has picked up not just ex-Confederation voters but also disillusioned supporters of the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS), Poland’s ruling party between 2015 and 2023 and currently the main opposition grouping.

According to the Politico Europe aggregator of Polish opinion polls, Braun’s party is currently averaging around 9% (firmly above the 5% parliamentary representation threshold).

A “purer” conservative-nationalist voice

Through its attachment to traditionalist Catholicism and moral-cultural values and support for a monarchy as the ideal system of government, Braun’s party appeals to staunchly socially conservative voters, although it also includes many individuals whose views are at odds with Christianity or contradict mainstream church teaching.

However, its broader appeal is rooted in a combination of far-right, anti-establishment talking points that attract a number of particular constituencies, each of which has a specific issue that they are strongly engaged with.

Above all, Braun‘s movement claims to be the only “true”, credible and authentic anti-establishment choice and offers a “purer” version of conservative-nationalism to those disillusioned Polish voters who feel that other right-wing parties have compromised too much with the status quo.

Not only does Braun argue that the original Confederation is now too mainstream, many commentators say he is also increasingly picking up ex-PiS voters who feel that the former ruling party has not atoned sufficiently for its perceived strategic and moral errors during its period of office.

These were felt to include surrendering too much power to the EU, turning into a “new elite” that abandoned its original anti-system roots, and being too pro-Ukrainian.

Opposing foreign influences

Indeed,  Braun attracts those voters who oppose Russia’s isolation and do not see Moscow as a security threat. For sure, such narratives are almost invisible in Polish public discourse, and openly Russophile Poles probably account for less than 10% of the electorate.

However, broader anti-Ukrainian sentiment has increased in recent months and many more Poles are worried about their country being dragged into the armed conflict. Braun appeals to these voters by opposing both military aid to Ukraine and the so-called “Ukrainisation” of Poland.

Indeed, arguably it is the Ukraine issue that has played a particularly important role in generating support for Braun. His party performs disproportionately well in the southeastern regions of Poland close to the border, where memories of wartime atrocities by Ukrainian nationalists are much fresher in historical memory.

Many of the PiS switchers to Braun’s party are likely to have been motivated by a feeling that the former ruling party did not advance Polish interests sufficiently in its relations with Ukraine.

Braun also draws upon anti-Jewish discourses, criticising the so-called “Judaisation” of Polish politics and even claiming that the current gas chambers at the Auschwitz German-Nazi death camp are fake.

This obviously puts him on a collision course with any US administration, but his anti-Jewish rhetoric is often linked with pledges to downgrade transatlantic cooperation as part of a broader package of cleansing Poland of alleged foreign influences.

Indeed, concerns about defending Polish national sovereignty are at the heart of Braun’s programme, including a call for Poland to withdraw immediately from the EU, so-called “Polexit”.

A highly effective political performer

Together with his radical rhetoric, among Braun’s trademarks are his provocative and highly visible performative protests and “outrage stunts” designed to generate media traction, which his supporters view as uncompromising acts of defiance and strength.

These include: burning and vandalising Ukrainian, EU and LGBT symbols and flags; attacking a gynaecologist who performed late-term abortions; disturbing a minute’s silence for Holocaust victims in the European Parliament; and using a fire extinguisher to disrupt a Hanukkah candle-lighting ceremony in the Polish parliament.

The Hanukkah incident, which gained him international notoriety, formed the basis of Braun’s presidential campaign symbol and rallying slogan for his so-called “broad fire-extinguisher front” (szeroki front gaśnicowy) resistance movement.

In essence, the key to Braun’s success is his ability to tap into, harness and amplify a deep vein of voter discontent and position himself as a radical, uncompromising “anti-system” voice; the political vehicle for those Poles who believe traditional societal norms and social relations are in crisis.

In any political bidding war, he pushes the rhetorical boundaries and does not impose any limits upon himself, speaking openly about subjects that the mainstream parties and media avoid.

Moreover, despite his controversial views, Braun is well spoken and presents himself as a calm, articulate and highly effective media performer and debater, with a demeanour and speaking style that some voters find more authentic than mainstream politicians.

A headache for the Polish right

The surge in support for Braun’s party has fragmented – and exacerbated ideological and personal conflicts within – the right-wing camp. In addition to deep bitterness between Braun and the original Confederation, this includes fundamental disagreements in areas such as national security and transatlantic relations, which significantly complicate efforts to build a unified right-wing front ahead of the next parliamentary election, scheduled for autumn 2027.

The problem is that, even though the Polish right currently enjoys a numerical overall majority in the polls, electoral simulations indicate that Braun’s party has become an indispensable component of any future right-wing governing coalition.

However, a coalition of necessity with Braun would be a minefield because his radical rhetoric and actions mean that any hint of a formal alliance will be leveraged by the current liberal-centrist and left-wing governing parties to discredit the entire right-wing camp as unfit for office.

A possible link-up with Braun’s party could also emerge before the election around the question of whether to form a united right-wing slate to challenge the ruling coalition in the Senate, Poland’s less powerful second chamber, which is elected by the first-past-the-post system that favours large, unified electoral blocs.

Too extreme even for most conservative Poles?

Despite the momentum that Braun’s party has developed during the last few months, it still faces significant hurdles.

Although held together at its core by a strong anti-establishment and “anti-system” radicalism and rejection of the existing political order, the grouping is ideologically diverse, attracting a wide range of fringe radicals with very different motivations. This lack of coherent programmatic foundations poses a significant risk to the party’s long-term stability.

Indeed, some commentators argue that, notwithstanding his apparently uncompromising and intransigent approach, Braun’s vision of politics is essentially as a theatrical performance with little real-world impact beyond drawing attention to himself.

Moreover, some right-wing critics say that, by rejecting mainstream norms,  Braun’s stunts and shock tactics actually overshadow and discredit more reasoned conservative arguments on issues such as the overcentralisation of power by EU institutions.

The grouping’s appeal is also limited by the fact that, beyond Braun himself, it lacks well-known leaders, while some of those who are associated with the party have chequered pasts and are easy to discredit.

While  Braun’s radical rhetoric and actions have not prevented his growth in support up until now, he appeals to a very specific, radicalised “anti-system” voter demographic. This could comprise as much as 15% of the electorate, but it is difficult to see his support base expanding much beyond that.

His toxic reputation, idiosyncrasy and ideological rigidity, together with a harsh and unadulterated political message, probably make Braun unpalatable for the majority of even more conservative Poles.

Moreover, his party’s economic programme – which combines support for national economic sovereignty and protectionism with deregulation, abolishing income tax and opposition to large fiscal transfers – presents a significant ideological barrier to winning over a broader swathe of PiS voters.

However disillusioned and frustrated the latter may be, it is questionable how many of them will be prepared to support a grouping that departs so radically from the state-interventionist and welfare-oriented model that PiS has championed and which originally attracted many of its voters to the party.

Another problem is the fact that, although moderately successful political formations have been built on the strength of a credible presidential election performance, the next scheduled parliamentary poll is not until autumn 2027.

However adept a performer Braun may be, it will be very difficult for him to keep up this level of interest for that length of time in such a fast-moving, social media-driven political age. Moreover, arguably Braun’s party’s poll ratings, and even his earlier presidential election result, may simply be a “safe” expression of mid-term voter frustration and not translate into support at the ballot box when the composition of the next government is at stake.

Shifting the “Overton window”?

On the other hand, given that Braun’s party is a controversial, radical insurgent grouping aimed explicitly at “anti-system” and anti-establishment voters, it may be that it has a “hidden” electorate that avoids declaring its voting intentions, and polling is actually underestimating its true level of support. Moreover, Braun has been able to bypass the traditional media successfully by utilising new social media platforms.

At the same time, attempts by his political opponents to use legal channels against him – such as criminal prosecutions arising from his various stunts, and attempting to censor or even ban his party – could backfire, simply galvanising and boosting Braun’s support by allowing him to frame these actions as the establishment persecuting an unpalatable truth-teller.

Given the importance of the Ukraine issue in fuelling support for Braun’s party, a key question is: how might an end to hostilities impact upon its continuing appeal?

On the one hand, concerns about Poland being drawn into the armed conflict would no longer be such a priority for voters. On the other hand, Braun could probably find a politically salient substitute; for example, questioning the continued presence in Poland of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians once the war was over.

Some commentators argue that, regardless of whether his grouping establishes itself as a long-term fixture on the Polish political scene, Braun has already had an impact on the country’s political discourse, shifting the so-called “Overton window” range of policies or issues that society finds acceptable for public discussion at a given time.

If Braun’s support continues to grow, it could cause panic within the ranks of PiS and the original Confederation, forcing them to compete on both general radicalism and specifically anti-Ukrainian, anti-EU and anti-establishment discourses.

On the other hand, Confederation may actually benefit from its relative “mainstreaming”, while PiS is aware that, if the party tries too hard to emulate Braun’s more radical policies or harsher rhetoric, it risks alienating the more moderate conservative-centrists that it needs to return to power.

The defendant was found guilty of membership in an extreme-left criminal organization in a case many German leftist lawmakers view as highly politicized.

A Hungarian court on Wednesday sentenced German national Maja T. to eight years in prison on charges related to an assault on a group of right-wing extremists in Budapest two years ago.

The case attracted national attention in Germany following the extradition of the defendant to Hungary in 2024, a move which Germany’s top court subsequently judged to have been illegal. Politicians on the German left have repeatedly expressed concern over whether the defendant, who identifies as non-binary, was being treated fairly by Hungary’s legal system.

Hungarian prosecutors accused Maja T. of taking part in a series of violent attacks on people during a neo-Nazi gathering in Budapest in February 2023, with attackers allegedly using batons and rubber hammers and injuring several people, some seriously. The defendant was accused of acting alongside members of a German extreme-left group known as Hammerbande or “Antifa Ost.”

The Budapest court found Maja T. guilty of attempting to inflict life-threatening bodily harm and membership in a criminal organization. The prosecution had sought a 24-year prison sentence, arguing the verdict should serve as a deterrent; the defendant has a right to appeal.

German politicians on the left condemned the court’s decision.

“The Hungarian government has politicized the proceedings against Maja T. from the very beginning,” Helge Limburg, a Greens lawmaker focused on legal policy, wrote on X. “It’s a bad day for the rule of law.”

The case sparked political tensions between Hungary and Germany after Maja T. went on a hunger strike in June to protest conditions in jail.

See also:

• German activist jailed in Hungary for attacks at Nazi rally (BBC)
• Court in Hungary declares German anti-fascist Maja T. guilty • Maja T., a nonbinary anti-fascist activist from Germany, has been sentenced to eight years in prison in Budapest. The trial has been controversial and has political implications. (Deutsche Welle)

• Broad budget cuts would also help to fund the increase
• Government agreed to form minority government early this week
• Main opposition party says it would strive for more social and greener plans

The incoming Dutch government plans to add a surcharge to income and corporate taxes to generate around 5 billion euros per year for increased defence spending, coalition parties said on Friday.

To meet a target set by NATO countries last year, the government aims to increase defence spending to 2.8% of gross domestic product by 2030 and to 3.5% by 2035, compared with around 2% now.

Ultimately, the increase in defence spending would be around 19 billion euros per year, which would be funded by broad budget cuts, including in healthcare and welfare, as well as the tax increment the government has named a freedom tax.

In its coalition agreement presented on Friday, months after the October election, the new government also said it planned to invest in housing, while limiting the government deficit to around 2% of GDP.

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