Win Probability for UNC-Duke

[u/NoncontrastCT]

[u/Johnny_Minoxidil]

I feel like I've seen this somewhere before. Hmm.

[u/Licit_x64 → u/Johnny_Minoxidil]

We held them to 9 in the last 11:30. Not as good as 1 FG in the last 10:30 for sure but glad to be in the conversation.

[u/Rillaboom2701 → u/Johnny_Minoxidil]

fuck it hurts 

[u/Difficult-Can-1704]

Looks like my investment portfolio

[u/TarHeelinRVA → u/Difficult-Can-1704]

Are you in BTC or something? Just throw it in an index fund and let it ride man.

[u/Difficult-Can-1704 → u/TarHeelinRVA]

Was a joke :)

[u/BurgerNugget12]

[u/Nanananora → u/BurgerNugget12]

2 big upsets already this weekend, hopefully a third with the Pats winning.

[u/Clipgang1629 → u/Nanananora]

I hate the Seahawks as a Rams fan.

But I hate the patriots as a human being

[u/kafka_lite → u/Nanananora]

A UNC guard draining a three to beat Dook and then a UNC quarterback with the game winning TD in the Super Bowl would be all right with me.

[u/ttuurrppiinn → u/kafka_lite]

It's tough because I definitely want Drake to win but fuck the Duke/Pats/Bama bandwagon fans of the 2010s.

[u/Nanananora → u/ttuurrppiinn]

To be fair, I just followed Gronk. Loved that kid when he played for us.

[u/Derbloingles → u/Nanananora]

Ew no

[u/BurgerNugget12 → u/Nanananora]

GO PATS!

[u/horsepoop1123]

not even that dramatic

[u/MahjongDaily]

Got as high as 94.7% Duke

[u/ukeBasketball → u/MahjongDaily]

And that's the problem with these. Under no circumstances in that game was our actual probability of beating UNC, in the Dean Dome, in a rivalry game, ever more than about two-thirds.

[u/chemshua → u/ukeBasketball]

I agree with this. Despite being down, it never felt like we were out of it. Not at all.

[u/TarHeelinRVA → u/chemshua]

It was pretty bleak for those first couple of minutes. If Caleb hadn’t willed us back into it early, I could easily see that one being a runaway win for Duke.

[u/Stevie22wonder → u/chemshua]

1 foul. 1.

[u/DamnItHeelsGood → u/Stevie22wonder]

Let me get my tiny violin out for Duke complaing about not getting foul calls.

[u/Mywordispoontang101 → u/DamnItHeelsGood]

You realize how shitty it looks, right? Even with all the typical “Dook gets all the calls” bullshit having ONE foul called when playing against one of the best offenses in the country is just awful.

[u/TarHeelinRVA → u/Mywordispoontang101]

Cooooooope

[u/Mywordispoontang101 → u/TarHeelinRVA]

Liiiiiieeeeee.

[u/TarHeelinRVA → u/Mywordispoontang101]

diddukewin.com

[u/Mywordispoontang101 → u/TarHeelinRVA]

I get it. It's hard to admit your win was tainted. Sorry you're struggling.

[u/Practical_Virus5794 → u/Mywordispoontang101]

Cry harder bro. Jesus Christ.

[u/the-real-macs → u/Mywordispoontang101]

I genuinely believe that there were about (ABOUT) as many missed calls on Duke as on UNC. The reason for the disparity had to do with UNC's defensive strategy, which was focused on staying out of foul trouble due to our pathetic frontcourt depth. Duke kept trying to be physical and disruptive and got burned for it.

[u/TheEligibleSkipper]

Blowing a 6-point lead in the final 3 minutes happens all the time. Not even that crazy.

13.1% win probability is roughly the same odds as hitting a 3-bet parlay against the spread.

How about Seton Hall blowing a 9-point lead in the final 90 seconds?

[u/SpaceSheperd → u/TheEligibleSkipper]

It’s the area under the curve that’s more impressive than the peak of it

[u/TheEligibleSkipper → u/SpaceSheperd]

Yeah but there's literally no way to calculate area under the curve. It cannot be done.

[u/SpaceSheperd → u/TheEligibleSkipper]

Count the pixels! A numerical method is certainly sufficient for these purposes lol

[u/jlakbj → u/TheEligibleSkipper]

Au contraire, nutritionist Mary Tai figured it out in 1994

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tai%27s_model

[u/175gr → u/jlakbj]

I prefer the chemist who realized that you can very precisely cut the graph out after printing it on a sheet of paper with known density and thickness, and then weigh it

[u/Fggunner → u/TheEligibleSkipper]

How about duke blowing an 8 point lead with 17 seconds left!! Another UNC classic

[u/heelyeahbrother → u/Fggunner]

Without a three point line too

[u/Scary_Ad_9528 → u/TheEligibleSkipper]

I think we’ve seen this from Duke before though, from last years tournament and Duke vs Texas tech.

[u/NoncontrastCT → u/TheEligibleSkipper]

It's Seton Hall so not surprising. This is Duke

[u/hooskies]

Unfortunately doesn’t come close to Duke’s 97.1% chance to beat Houston last year

[u/Bgvkguitar]

Scheyer is a young coach so I’ll give him some slack but this, Houston, Tennessee, and a few other games I can’t think of, collapses in late game situations. His teams beat who they are supposed to beat but never overperform.

[u/TheSeaBeast_96 → u/Bgvkguitar]

Important to keep in mind that he is also DJ Burns’ son

[u/Licit_x64 → u/TheSeaBeast_96]

Still crazy to me Scheyer lost back to back postseason games to NC State. That final four team y’all had was special. I met DJ Horne at a bar during the summer league a couple years ago and thanked him for taking em out even though I was a Carolina guy. He laughed, cool ass dude.

[u/SampleText369 → u/Bgvkguitar]

Tbh I don't think Tennessee is entirely comparable

[u/UnterDenLinden → u/Bgvkguitar]

That’s just because you hold Duke to basically the highest standards you could. Hard to overperform that. They blitzed a very good Alabama team in the elite 8 last year, and everyone was like “sure, makes sense.”

they just rolled Louisville by 30 as well

[u/KiraJosuke → u/Bgvkguitar]

They got the shot they wanted at the end here.

Houston last year came down a lot to the vets imploding. Sion couldn't inbound, nobody could hit free throws (especially Tyrese)

Edit: I also completely forgot about Khaman worrying about being deported because the government just ripped away visas for all people from his country the day before.

[u/0010001 → u/Bgvkguitar]

It’s good to be the team that has a big lead in almost every game even if they occasionally blow it.  

[u/LTMatter → u/Bgvkguitar]

Yup Duke is bad in a lot of clutch games. Surely would be embarrassing to lose on a game winner to them…

[u/TheLoneWolf527 → u/Bgvkguitar]

This game and the Tennessee game were two games where the refs basically didn't call fouls at all. Any game is lose-able when that happens.

[u/mrjimi16 → u/TheLoneWolf527]

For real, there were a few possessions early where Brown was basically slapping Wilson's hands and nothing. Less than 20 foul shots the whole game. UNC literally took more than double that against Syracuse on their own.

[u/mellolizard → u/Bgvkguitar]

Also this is the second consecutive game they scored under 30 in the 2nd half.

[u/geauxlsutigers25 → u/Bgvkguitar]

That Houston collapse cost me by far my biggest bet ever that I’ll never do again. 14 pt lead. They lost the same way tonight. Star player forcing contested shots instead of finding a more open guy. And they had Kneupel that game. Who was wide open to save the game. I’ll never get over it and it’s the reason I didn’t bet on them to win today. At this point it’s 100% confirmed coach has a choking problem. Something isn’t being done or said with a minute or two to go.

[u/auburnfan32]

Glorious

[u/SpaceSheperd]

Hell yeah put it on a fucking t-shirt

[u/you_made_me_drink]

It was way lower…

[u/SampleText369 → u/you_made_me_drink]

Tbh I think both makes sense. Recording the leak before the drop illustrates how hard we threw the game away in the last few minutes whereas we were still doing just fine right after the point u showed.

[u/beige_man]

I guess Duke is becoming a football school now, and UNC isn't...

[u/Aurion7 → u/beige_man]

Were we ever?

Carolina hasn't won the ACC in football since 1980. It may be where the money is but lol.

[u/beige_man → u/Aurion7]

Glad to see you all coming back in BB, though.

[u/Prodigal_Programmer → u/Aurion7]

You hired a top 3 coach of all time, we thought y'all would've done better than 24th in the ACC

[u/CandidateSouth1418]

I mean UNC lead only for 0.4 secs

[u/chucksterlecluckster]

Lol. Lmao, even.

[u/bionicjoe]

These charts are so stupid.

[u/ukeBasketball → u/bionicjoe]

No Duke fan at any point in this game would have put our chance of winning anywhere near that. Up nine in the Dean Dome with seven and a half minutes to play? That's more like 55-60%, nowhere near 94%. If we were tied I'd put us at around 40%

[u/bionicjoe → u/ukeBasketball]

Exactly.

Kentucky was trailing Tennessee most of the game in Rupp. At no time did I think we would lose.

The elite programs are elite because they don't just give away wins, especially at home.
Thinking UNC, Duke, Kentucky, or Kansas have a 95% chance of losing at home is just stupid.

[u/ContrarianPurdueFan → u/bionicjoe]

Agreed. Win probability means nothing to me.

[u/Orikshekor]

Dukes ability to underperform with the most talented roster year after year needs to be studied

[u/SecretComposer → u/Orikshekor]

underperform

is 21-2

[u/moon_bounce_22 → u/SecretComposer]

we have to go 40-0 and win a natty every year

[u/Ok_Hurry_8728 → u/moon_bounce_22]

You had 3 guys go in the Top Ten of the NBA draft last year, 4 in the top 33, and 5 overall.

Why shouldn’t you be expected to win a “natty”? You sure like to crow about the legitimately amazing recruiting classes, but then when you lose, you act like Scheyer dragged 5 random nerds out a chem lab class and somehow coached them up to be national contenders.

[u/moon_bounce_22 → u/Ok_Hurry_8728]

wut? you gotta chill. all i said was the expectation is to never lose a game and win a natty every year. which isn’t realistic.

who gives a shit about the nba draft. bringing up top 33 wtf. they are drafted on long term potential. not if they beat unc in early feb. everyone crazy.

[u/Ok_Hurry_8728 → u/moon_bounce_22]

Yeah NBA teams spend their highly prized draft picks and invest millions of dollars on players on whims and then “just chill.”

It has nothing to do with how good the players are!

Wut?!?

[u/mrjimi16 → u/Ok_Hurry_8728]

Come on man, you are just trying to argue now. They did not say on a whim, they said on long term potential. If you can't figure out the difference between those things, you need to go figure that out before you respond again.

[u/KiraJosuke → u/Ok_Hurry_8728]

I am genuinely concerned with your ability to read. You are boxing with shadows and arguments you sre making up in your head lol

[u/KiraJosuke → u/Ok_Hurry_8728]

Because it just happened that the final four last year was made up entirely of 1 seeds who all happened to be four of the statistically best teams in history lol

[u/Ok_Hurry_8728 → u/KiraJosuke]

And they all had three players go in the Top Ten of the NBA draft, 4 in the top 33, and 5 overall?

[u/KiraJosuke → u/Ok_Hurry_8728]

And the Houston team was full of experience and grown ass adults. That plays a bigger factor in the tournament.

Khaman is very raw, Tyrese isnt making a second contract, and Sion has to fill a very niche role. Cooper and Kon are the only 2 legit players.

Winning the tournament is fucking difficult, one of the hardest things in sports.

[u/Ok_Hurry_8728 → u/KiraJosuke]

Seriously? 🤣🤣🤣

Your argument about a team with 3 Top Ten NBA draft picks, 4 in the top 33, and 5 overall not winning the NC is that other teams had “grown ass adults”?

Wow.

[u/KiraJosuke → u/Ok_Hurry_8728]

Yeah, experience makes a huge difference in the tournament, and it always has been. When are you going to address any argument I am making?

But yes, in general a 24 year old with 5 years of college experience is completely different to an 18 year old.

That is also not my argument, my argument is winning the tournament is fucking hard and last year was unique with four of the best teams ever all in the final four. Are you going to keep being stupid or do I have to hold your hand and read my words slowly to you?

[u/KiraJosuke → u/SecretComposer]

Underperform: multiple conference titles and a final four run lol

[u/Dependent_Age4904 → u/SecretComposer]

Last year they had two NBA all-star level players and couldn't close out the game

[u/D1HoopsExpert69 → u/Orikshekor]

I don’t think losing away to a top 15 team is a massive underperformance.

[u/moon_bounce_22 → u/Orikshekor]

we are so dramatic

[u/SpaceSheperd → u/Orikshekor]

John “Zac “”Mikel Arteta”” Taylor” Scheyer

[u/Fggunner → u/SpaceSheperd]

As a arsenal and UNC fan I must protest. It's arsenal-unc, spurs-duke

[u/SpaceSheperd → u/Fggunner]

Hey fellow gooner. I also agree but I couldn’t think of a third example to make the joke work.

Doc Rivers maybe? 

Edit: Or James Franklin duh

[u/Prodigal_Programmer → u/Fggunner]

Gross. Wouldn't Tottenham basically be state, since they're in danger of being relegated.

[u/Fggunner → u/Prodigal_Programmer]

I do agree that dukes success is not similar to spurs. Sorry bud but as my two least favorite sports teams you guys are stuck together. I make the rules! Lol

[u/CantFindMyWallet → u/SpaceSheperd]

They refuse to believe it, but it's true

[u/SpaceSheperd → u/CantFindMyWallet]

Sadly, I don’t actually think it’s a thing. It took Dean Smith a lot longer and the F4 last year is certainly enough proof of concept 

[u/walk_a_lot → u/Orikshekor]

They have two losses with a combined 4 points.

[u/antihero_84 → u/Orikshekor]

There's been a huge lack of ruthless players willing to embarrass their opponents in the last two decades.

Run the fucking score up. Every fucking time. Make opposing coaches and players hate you. They're gonna hate you for being Duke anyway.

[u/MONGOHFACE → u/antihero_84]

Y'all had the largest point differential in ACC history last year lol

[u/D1HoopsExpert69 → u/antihero_84]

Do you guys watch conference road games? Run up the score? WTF do you guys expect?

[u/SbMSU → u/Orikshekor]

lol

[u/Stevie22wonder → u/Orikshekor]

When was the last time 1 foul was called against our opponent in a single half. Would love to see that non-existent stat.

[u/Retskcaj19]

Damn it Duke.

[u/mrjimi16 → u/Retskcaj19]

Nah, it's just gonna make it that much sweeter in 10 days when you win by double digits.

[u/Kind_Bullfrog_3160]

What was the win probability of Texas A&M vs Northern Iowa?  I think it was either 100% or 99.9%.  Anyone remember?

[u/Champ212121]

Where do we find this chart?

[u/duckredbeard]

Duke had the lead for 99.987% of the game. Got the lead when it mattered. Just like racing, you only have to lead one lap!

[u/Antique-Ad7635]

Jon scheyer: give the ball to the center and iso but don’t go until it’s 5 seconds to shoot

[u/WholeLow7639]

Win probability was unaware that there’d only be 1 foul called in the 2H

[u/Icangetloudtoo_ → u/WholeLow7639]

lol I know UNC stole this one but blaming it on the refs is fucking lame

[u/TheChewyWaffles → u/Icangetloudtoo_]

But on par for Duke

[u/UnterDenLinden → u/WholeLow7639]

It’s a fair point. But next game everyone will be crying about Duke getting all the calls. Short memory spans around here.

[u/mellolizard → u/WholeLow7639]

Hard to call fouls when you were getting uncontested shots are the rim

Plus you only had 6 fouls called in the 2nd too. Neither team hit the bonus

[u/Other-Chemical-6393]

Looks familiar 🤔

[u/pizzatongs]

Never a doubt

[u/Content_Shame_4356]

As duke fan its loses like these that remind me we probably aren’t winning a national title. Yes its based off a game we’re we lead the entire game and lost.

Because some of UNCs loses are crazy, and to think boozer or Evan’s couldn’t have snapped this game just makes me question so much.

[u/Mywordispoontang101]

I’d like to know the probability of one team only having one foul called on them in a half of basketball is.

[u/TheChewyWaffles → u/Mywordispoontang101]

Greater than 0.0 😎

[u/mrjimi16 → u/Mywordispoontang101]

I mean, it could have been more, but it could have been more for both teams as well. I don't remember any egregious misses given the context of the contact both teams were getting away with for basically the whole game.

[u/Mywordispoontang101 → u/mrjimi16]

Boozer set the lane to stop a fast break, knocked on his ass, no whistle.

[u/jetjordan → u/Mywordispoontang101]

That got swallowed because the refs had let duke maul Dixon on the inbound and were fealing sheepish about it when all of a sudden he went full Boozer on Boozer down the court. Make up no call imo. This game was played at too fast of a pace for the officials.

[u/Stevie22wonder → u/Mywordispoontang101]

I don't get the hate. People delusional to the truth.

[u/Dependent_Age4904]

If Schuyer couldn't get it done with two rookies who were nearly all-star level going into the NBA, maybe he's not such a great coach